The Next 20 Years

Note — the original article was published in Polityka here.

On the occasion of Poland’s 20th anniversary in the European Union and in anticipation of the upcoming Polish presidency of the EU Council beginning in January, consulting firm PwC engaged political and business leaders in a series of interviews to share their perspectives. These conversations are based on reflections on the past two decades, current inspirations and lessons for the future.

Political leaders, including former Polish Presidents Lech Wałęsa and Aleksander Kwaśniewski, former Prime Minister and President of the European Parliament Jerzy Buzek, and Jiří Rusnok, former Czech Prime Minister, Finance Minister and Governor of the Czech National Bank, shared their insights and recommendations. Business leaders also participating in the discussion included Beata Javorcik, Chief Economist of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Adam Góral, founder and CEO of Asseco Poland, Brunon Bartkiewicz, CEO of ING Bank Śląski, Tom Kindermans, Director of SAP Central and Eastern Europe, and Benjamin Jošar, President of Triglav Skladi. 

The interviews were led by, among others, Michał Mastalerz, CEO and Partner at PwC Poland, Agnieszka Gajewska, Partner and Global Public Sector Leader at PwC, Mariusz Chudy, Partner and CEE Cloud & Digital Leader at PwC, Thomas Magill, Partner at PwC Slovenia, as well as Witold Orłowski, Chief Economic Advisor at PwC Poland. Below is an overview of key observations from this series of interviews. 

All participants acknowledged that the last two decades within the European Union have been remarkable for both Poland and its economy. Brunon Bartkiewicz described it as an economic miracle, while Adam Góral tempered the sentiment, suggesting that this era of success is now behind us. While there are reasons for pride—such as Poland’s increased transparency and efficient use of EU funds—there is a lingering sense of untapped potential, with the EU still representing opportunities that remain unexplored. Beata Javorcik added that the time of easy growth fuelled by capital and knowledge inflows has ended. Now a more challenging phase begins—driven by innovation and independence.

When Poland joined the EU, there was a sense that the national transformation—a previously accomplished transition from central planning to a market economy and from a single-party system to democracy—was a special national feature. Now we share this transitional experience with the world as we live in an era of global transition. Thus, Aleksander Kwaśniewski concludes, the 2004 expansion of the EU, dubbed the “big bang,” might well be looked upon as the last major positive and optimistic decision of the 21st century. Following that moment came the financial crisis, the migration crisis, the pandemic and finally, Russia’s aggression against Ukraine—the former President reminds us. He adds that while many challenges were anticipated, few believed that war would once again occur in Europe.

The EU has always been described as having been strengthened through crises. What, then, lies ahead for the Union, Central and Eastern Europe and Poland in the next two decades? Aleksander Kwaśniewski, in conversation with Witold Orłowski, suggested that the next twenty years will be especially difficult and complex. The current geopolitical landscape is in disarray, with the old geopolitical architecture coming to an end and a new order yet to emerge. China is pushing for prominence, the US is attempting to maintain its leadership and Russia has become more imperialistic. These factors will make security and defence spending increasingly critical. The EU’s role and vision in this new world order leaves questions which are yet to be answered.

According to Kwaśniewski, forecasting is further complicated by unprecedented technological advancement, which is so remarkable that we cannot predict all the consequences of new phenomena that may mark the beginning of a new era. The issue is not change in itself but its pace. In the next twenty years, we should also be prepared for massive waves of migration, especially from regions suffering from water shortages and climate change. These challenges may fuel populist and nationalist parties in Europe. According to the former President, Poland should work to reduce its deep political polarisation, as creating conditions favourable for foreign investors should be a bipartisan concern, independent of election results.

“We have a mission and a debt to fulfil,” encouraged Brunon Bartkiewicz. He added, “It would be good to pay back the civilizational debt and drive the EU forward. I believe we are capable of that. Is this naive optimism? What harm is there in naive optimism?” Bartkiewicz believes that poorer countries must run faster. He predicted that at least in the banking sector, the trajectory for the next 20 years is set, driven mainly by technology. Banking services will become increasingly high-quality and intuitive, with transactional elements causing less friction for clients. With Poles becoming wealthier, their need for financial literacy will grow and Polish businesses will expand and adopt new technologies.

Bartkiewicz added that while Poland still lags behind Northern Europe, it is overtaking some Southern European countries, albeit with reservations about metrics such as GDP per capita. The EU, he noted, increasingly needs growth engines, and Central Europe is increasingly taking on this role. Countries in the region, and Poland in particular, is competitive in adapting existing technological solutions rather than developing new patents.

According to Bartkiewicz, the EU is a phenomenal entity and Poland’s economic success is largely due to its access to this vast market. The Union, however, is losing momentum in technological progress and no one wants it to become merely a large consumer market for solutions from other parts of the world. Economic prosperity, he warned, also risks breeding complacency. Transforming Poland into a hub for high-tech production will require further infrastructure investments, with the energy grid being a particularly pressing issue. 

Vast demographic groups, such as women, who are underrepresented in technology fields, and people with disabilities, who are underutilised professionally, await greater opportunities. Finally, building Poland’s future without investing in nuclear energy will be difficult, as the country is only now beginning to train nuclear technicians.

Tom Kindermans does not anticipate a bleak future. He is convinced that Central and Eastern Europe will play a leading role not only within Europe but even globally—provided that caution is maintained and flexibility is not lost due to excessive regulation. Artificial intelligence, for instance, requires management and regulation, but this must be balanced to preserve creativity. Ethical stability is also crucial, as while authoritarian regimes may be stable, they lack ethical integrity. In the future, investor choices will be more influenced by ethical considerations than by financial returns alone, making ethics more important than rates of return.

Tom Kindermans advises today’s 20-somethings to avoid extremes, seek compromise and cultivate critical and creative thinking. Jerzy Buzek urges support for the European Green Deal, calling it “an incredible project for the future.” The former Polish Prime Minister sees it as a civilizational initiative that will shape the future, replacing the industrial civilization established nearly 300 years ago by Europeans across all continents. At the same time, Europe will need to prepare for potential isolation should it find itself facing an aggressive Russia without support from the United States. Adam Góral adds that only through collective and wise action by Europeans—advocates of democracy and the market economy—can Europe continue to be a valuable partner to the United States, China and the often underestimated India.

In a conversation with Agnieszka Gajewska, Lech Wałęsa pointed out that his generation made up for the losses of the previous one by anchoring Poland in NATO and the EU, enabling Poland to participate in building a New Europe that meets the challenges of modern development. Time moves on, yet three issues that the “Solidarity” leader once fought for as a “revolutionary”—namely, the values uniting Europe, the shape of its economic system and strategies for countering demagogues—still require continuous pursuit of new solutions.